Key Takeaways
- Calgary’s residential market has cooled, with total residential values down roughly 5% year-over-year as of January 2026 — but the story varies significantly by property type and neighbourhood.
- Detached and semi-detached homes remain relatively resilient; townhouses and condos are seeing the sharpest price declines and highest inventory levels.
- Calgary currently has 26,000 units under construction — 45% of which are purpose-built rental — making it the construction capital of Canada relative to its population.
- Rent asking prices have dropped an estimated 15–20% from peak, with basement one-bedrooms seeing the steepest decline (around 20%). Rents are expected to continue softening through 2026 and into 2027.
- The rental supply glut was largely driven by CMHC’s MLI Select program, which made rental construction so attractive that overbuilding became inevitable.
- Despite near-term headwinds, Alberta’s long-term economic fundamentals — tech growth, lithium extraction, data centres, aerospace, population growth, and low taxes — remain strong and support Calgary as a solid long-term real estate market.
- You can’t time the market. Buying the right property matters far more than getting the perfect price. Most of the best real estate returns are made in down markets.
- Practical strategies for investors right now: buy in good locations, renovate during vacancies, respond to tenants quickly, use rental incentives strategically, and cut losses on bad properties sooner rather than later.
If you’ve been following Calgary’s real estate market, you already know the last couple of years have been a wild ride. And if you’re trying to make sense of where things stand right now — and where they’re headed — this post is for you.
In early 2026, we presented a full market update at the Calgary REI Hub meetup, covering everything from current sales data and rent trends to Alberta’s long-term economic outlook. The goal was the same as always: give you honest numbers, share what we’re actually seeing on the ground, and help you make smarter decisions — whether you’re buying, holding, or reconsidering a property in your portfolio.
Here’s a breakdown of what we covered.
Calgary Market Update: January 2026
The overall picture for Calgary’s residential market, as of January 2026, is a cooling trend. Total residential values are down about 5% year-over-year in aggregate. Sales are softer, and months of inventory are up. In plain terms: it’s shifting toward a more balanced market after several years of strong seller-side conditions.
But “the market” isn’t one thing — it depends heavily on property type and neighbourhood.
Detached and Semi-Detached: Still Relatively Stable
Detached homes are sitting around -3% year-over-year, which is fairly resilient given what’s happening elsewhere. Some neighbourhoods are flat or even marginally up; others — particularly in the northeast and east end — have seen more significant correction. The west side of the city has held up much better.
With roughly 2.67 months of inventory, detached and semi-detached properties are technically still in light seller’s or balanced market territory, depending on where you look. This isn’t a buyer’s market in that segment — at least not yet.
Townhouses and Condos: Much More Pressure
This is where the story gets harder. Townhouses and condos have come down considerably more, and months of inventory in these categories have roughly doubled. If you’re trying to sell a condo right now, you need to be priced sharply — especially if there are other units in your building competing at the same time.
There’s nothing fundamentally supporting price stability or growth in the apartment and rowhouse sectors for 2026. That said, prices are still meaningfully higher than they were in 2021–2022, so some perspective matters here.
Why There’s So Much Supply: Calgary’s Construction Boom
Calgary is currently the construction capital of Canada relative to its population size. That’s not a boast — it’s a challenge.
In 2025, Alberta accounted for almost a quarter of all housing starts in Canada. We don’t have a quarter of Canada’s population — not even close. On the rental side, the numbers are even more striking: Alberta has built nearly triple the rental units it was building a decade ago, and more rental units in the last five years than in the previous 30 years combined.
Right now, Calgary has 26,000 units under construction. Of those, 45% are purpose-built rental. Within the apartment segment specifically, 76% are purpose-built rental starts.
What Drove the Shift to Rental Construction?
The short answer: CMHC’s MLI Select program. Starting around 2021–2022, this financing program made rental construction so attractive — particularly in Alberta, where the affordability ratios required to qualify were already being met by market rents — that developers shifted heavily toward building rental rather than condo projects.
For a developer building an apartment building, the decision between rental and condo comes down to one thing: where the money is. MLI Select changed that math dramatically. The program was so good, in fact, that overbuilding became inevitable. As Layne put it during the presentation:
“The MLI Select product is so good that it’s bad. It’s so good, especially in Alberta, where the market rents that you have to hit or the affordability ratios were already above what Calgary’s rents were. So it was really easy to take advantage of this… It was inevitable we would end up overbuilding.”
The result: condo starts didn’t disappear, and rental starts were added on top of them. When you stack both trends together, the total supply picture becomes much clearer — and more sobering.
CMHC MLI Select program details — https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/project-funding-and-mortgage-financing/mortgage-loan-insurance/multi-unit-mortgage-loan-insurance/mli-select
What Does the Supply Pipeline Look Like Going Forward?
Even with new starts expected to slow — CREB forecasts a 35% drop in starts next year — there are still years of deliveries in the pipeline. Units currently under construction don’t stop being built because demand softened. Builders who’ve torn down structures and taken on financing can’t just sit on those properties for years. They have to finish and exit, even if it means doing so at a loss.
CoStar is forecasting continued multifamily deliveries for at least the next three years at substantial volumes. This is a key reason we expect rents to continue softening through 2026 and into 2027.
The Real Story on Calgary Rents
The news has been reporting roughly a 5% year-over-year rent drop in Calgary. If you own rental properties and have been re-leasing units recently, you already know that number feels off — because it probably is.
The CoStar data that makes headlines is drawn from apartment buildings with five or more units, and it aggregates across all bedroom types. Crucially, many of those tenants never reached peak rent levels — so when rents softened, those buildings didn’t fall as far.
A more granular picture comes from data compiled by Larry Lee, a commercial mortgage broker who began tracking daily asking rents on RentFaster over a two-year period. His data shows asking rents have dropped approximately 15–20% from peak. Basement one-bedrooms have seen the steepest decline — around 20%. Most other unit types are in the 15% range.
That tracks with what we’re seeing as landlords ourselves.
Peak to Trough: How Bad Could It Get?
Our best estimate is that Calgary rents will see a 30% peak-to-trough decline before stabilizing. We’ve already experienced roughly half of that — about 15%. The peak was short-lived; if you rented a unit in early 2024, that was likely the high point. If you rented in 2022, you’re probably still close to even.
The problem was concentrated among landlords who rented at peak rates (late 2023 through mid-2025) and now need to re-lease. Expect further softening of 5–10% this year, depending on property type and location. We think the bottom of the rental market arrives sometime in 2027, after which conditions should begin to stabilize and eventually improve.
If you have vacancies coming up: plan renovations now, talk to your tenants early, and be realistic about where rents are actually landing in your specific neighbourhood.
Should You Try to Time the Market? (Spoiler: No.)
A common reaction to everything above is: “I’ll just wait until 2027 when rents bottom out, then buy.” The problem is that when you’re thinking that, so is everyone else. And the good properties won’t wait.
Real estate is not a trading vehicle. Transaction costs are too high to flip in and out of the market efficiently. If you’re investing for the long term — and we invest with the intention of holding for 20+ years — what you pay at purchase matters far less than what you buy.
To illustrate: if you bought a property for $390,000 instead of waiting to get it at $365,000, and it’s now worth $650,000 — do those extra $25,000 matter? Not really. What mattered was getting into a quality property: good location, easy to rent, strong rent-to-price ratio, minimal maintenance headaches. That’s what you’re looking for.
“We want you to have the news. Don’t go stretch yourself this year. If you can’t handle a reduction in cash flow, you shouldn’t buy right now… You should buy when you’re ready to buy. That includes being able to handle a downturn.”
We’ve both bought properties this year. Not because the market is great right now — it isn’t, especially on the rental income side. But because good properties came available, the long-term fundamentals are solid, and competition is lower than it’s been in years. Most of the best real estate returns are generated during down markets, because that’s when you can actually find and buy quality without getting into a bidding war.
That said, “buy in a down market” is not “buy anything.” You need to know the market, have the financial cushion to handle negative cash flow if it comes, and be buying for quality — not just price.
Alberta’s Long-Term Economic Fundamentals
Here’s where the picture shifts from cautious to optimistic. The short-term rental and market conditions are real challenges. But the case for Calgary real estate over a 10–20 year horizon is stronger than it’s ever been. Here’s why.
Economic Diversification Beyond Oil and Gas
Alberta shed 10,000 oil and gas jobs last year — and still grew employment by 3.4%. All of Canada’s net employment gains last month came from Alberta, and two-thirds of those were private sector jobs. The rest of the country, if you exclude Alberta, actually lost jobs. That’s a significant structural shift.
Alberta’s economy is no longer dependent on oil and gas expansion to grow. Energy royalties and the industry still matter, but the growth is coming from elsewhere:
- Technology: Calgary is one of the fastest-growing tech hubs in North America. The oil and gas workforce was never roughnecks — it was engineers, statisticians, and scientists who pivoted into tech and fintech when energy prices fell. That talent base is now fuelling a broader tech ecosystem.
- Aerospace: De Havilland chose to relocate its head office to Alberta and build greenfield manufacturing capacity here from scratch — despite no existing aerospace industry. That’s a strong signal about Alberta’s regulatory environment and business culture.
- Logistics and Airport Infrastructure: Calgary’s international airport is one of the only major airports in the world surrounded entirely by land. That gives us expandable logistics capacity that land-constrained airports in coastal cities simply don’t have.
- Data Centres: Alberta’s deregulated electricity market gives data centre operators a critical advantage — they can build their own power generation without years of regulatory approvals. A $10 billion data centre project has been proposed 45 minutes north of the city. Premier Danielle Smith has set a target of attracting $100 billion in investment. Alberta also has world-class fibre optic infrastructure thanks to the oil and gas industry.
- Lithium: Alberta has significant proven lithium reserves, and unlike other jurisdictions, we already have the infrastructure and chemical engineering expertise to extract it. E3 Lithium is developing the first commercial-scale extraction operation in the province. This is going to matter a lot as global demand accelerates and supply chains shift away from China.
- Agribusiness and Chemical Processing: Companies like Dow Chemical are investing in Alberta production capacity for industrial chemicals — work that used to be done in Germany using Russian resource inputs. That supply chain is shifting, and Alberta is positioned to benefit.
University of Calgary: A New Kind of Recognition
Calgary was recently named to Time Magazine’s Top 100 Cities list (ranked 97th). A significant contributor to this is the University of Calgary’s research profile — focused on practical, industry-adjacent work in carbon capture, agribusiness, health, and hydrogen. Funding from the energy sector has created a research institution that is surprisingly well-positioned for what the world actually needs right now.
Low Taxes, Low Cost of Living, Strong Workforce
Alberta has the lowest corporate tax rate in Canada and among the lowest costs of living of any major Canadian city. This combination makes it genuinely easier for companies to attract and retain talent here. An employee earning $110,000 in Toronto might be renting a one-bedroom condo at $800,000+. The same salary in Calgary buys a house, a yard, and a stable family life — which, practically speaking, keeps employees in place.
That’s why international companies — including major tech firms — are choosing Calgary as their Canadian or North American head office location.
Population Growth and Interprovincial Migration
Calgary’s population has grown from 1 million to 1.6 million in under 20 years. Alberta’s population just passed 5 million. We’re now gaining residents from BC — a reversal of the historical flow. Stats Canada’s 1, 5, and 10-year growth rate projections show Calgary leading all major Canadian cities.
This long-term population trajectory is one of the strongest arguments for Calgary real estate. More people means more demand for housing — rental and owned.
Alberta vs. the Rest of Canada: A Structural Advantage
One thing that rarely gets discussed in real estate circles is the stability of Alberta’s economic base compared to other provinces. In Ontario, home equity became a form of consumer spending — people treated the increase in their home’s value as income, borrowed against it repeatedly, and built spending habits around it. When that model stops working, the fallout is significant. We’re seeing that now.
In Alberta, equity is a newer phenomenon for most homeowners. People here have been building wealth in real property more recently, and they haven’t been using it as a revolving line of credit to the same degree. Alberta’s foreclosure rate has dropped to the point where it’s statistically immeasurable in some quarters. That’s a sign of a fundamentally healthier household balance sheet.
How to Navigate This Market as an Investor
If you own rental properties right now, or you’re considering buying, here’s how we’d approach the current environment.
Buy in Good Locations
In a hot market, tenants take whatever they can get — bad layouts, far suburbs, lower-quality finishes. In a cooler market, they get selective. Location quality, unit quality, and finishes all matter more when tenants have options. Buy in desirable, central neighbourhoods where demand is structural, not just cyclical.
Renovate During Vacancies
In a competitive rental market, the renovation premium — the extra rent a renovated unit commands over a non-renovated one — is larger, not smaller. If you’ve been putting off improvements, a tenant turnover right now is actually a good time to do the work. Trades availability is also improving as the construction boom slows.
Respond Quickly and Market Well
In the last few years, tenants chased landlords. That dynamic has reversed. If you have a vacancy, respond quickly to inquiries. Do proper screening. And invest in quality photos — professional photography after a renovation is one of the best dollars you can spend. A few hundred dollars can serve you for years of listings.
Be Strategic About Rent Reductions vs. Incentives
For single-family properties: if your unit is sitting vacant, just reduce the rent. Get it leased. The advice to “never drop your rent in Alberta” is wrong when vacancy is dragging. Get the unit filled.
For larger multifamily properties, it’s more nuanced. Those assets are valued on NOI, so reducing rent reduces your property value on paper. In those cases, offering incentives (one to three months free rent) can be more effective than a permanent rent reduction — it keeps your lease rate intact while still attracting tenants.
Don’t do both simultaneously. If you’re giving three months free and also dropping rent by $50/month, that math rarely works in your favour.
Cut Your Losses on Bad Properties
This is the hardest piece of advice to take, but one of the most important. If you have a property that’s cash flow negative, appraising below what you paid, in a location or property type with weak fundamentals — don’t hold it hoping for recovery. Every month you hold it compounds the problem.
We frequently have this conversation with condo investors in particular. A condo you’ve owned for 20 years might feel like your best investment because it cash flows well and is nearly paid off. But if you have $350,000 in equity sitting there generating $900 a month — that’s a poor return on capital. If you redeployed that equity into two single-family homes with land, you’d likely generate comparable or better cash flow, with far better long-term appreciation. Evaluate every property as if you were buying it today. If you wouldn’t, consider selling.
Consider Alternative Strategies for Underperforming Units
If you have a unit sitting vacant or generating poor returns, now is a reasonable time to explore short-term or medium-term furnished rental options. We’re not saying it’s the right move for everyone — but if a property is deeply negative and you can’t sell it, being creative with your rental strategy can improve the income picture while you wait for market conditions to change.
Opportunities Worth Watching
Even in a softer market, there are specific situations worth keeping an eye on.
- Condos (selectively): We’re not condo bulls. But as prices continue to fall, there will be select deals — particularly for buyers who actually want to live in a unit rather than rent it out. If that’s you, make lots of offers and don’t be shy about low balling. Some sellers need to move.
- New builds (for homeowners): The gap between new build pricing and resale has narrowed significantly. Builder incentives are back. If you’ve been waiting to buy a brand new home, now may be a better time than it was 18 months ago.
- Distressed CMHC MLI Select builds: Some new-build multifamily properties — particularly townhouse-style or small multiplex projects — were purchased with projected rents that never existed. These buyers are going to struggle. Some will sell. Some may present creative acquisition opportunities through loan assumptions or other structures. Watch this space, especially over the next 12–18 months.
- Long-term multifamily owners looking to exit: We’re starting to see a meaningful increase in well-maintained, older multifamily buildings coming to market from owners who’ve held for 30–40 years and are ready to retire. These properties tend to be well-run and in solid locations. The challenge is that some sellers are still pricing on peak rents their tenants haven’t renewed at yet. As leases turn over, pricing will normalize — and that’s when these deals become more attractive.
- Buy and hold — boring, but solid: The strategy that works in almost any market condition. Buy a quality property, renovate if needed, hold long-term, refinance when equity builds. In a market where flipping is riskier, the buy-and-hold approach also gives you an exit: if the market turns on you mid-renovation, you simply keep the property as a rental.
The Bottom Line
The Calgary market right now is not the market of 2022 or 2023. Rents are down, inventory is up, and the condo and townhouse sectors are under real pressure. We’re not going to pretend otherwise.
But we’re also still buying. Not because we’re ignoring the data — we’ve spent years tracking it closely — but because Calgary’s long-term economic and demographic story is genuinely compelling, and because waiting for a perfect moment means missing good properties. The best deals in any market cycle tend to go to investors who are prepared, patient, and honest about what they’re getting into.
Be smart. Don’t over-leverage. Know your numbers. And if you’re not sure whether a property makes sense for your situation, reach out — that’s exactly what we’re here for.
